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Badgers Opposition Research: An early look at the 2018 New Mexico Lobos

We dig deep in to the Wisconsin Badgers Week 2 opponent, the New Mexico Lobos, who are facing an offseason of uncertainty thanks to allegations against their head coach.

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The Badgers season is just 204 days away and what better time to start looking ahead than now? Coming off a school-record 13-win season, what does Paul Chryst and Co. have in store for the upcoming season? A lot depends on the schedule at hand of course and we’re here in the crack research lab of talkingBadgers doing the analyzing you don’t have time for on all 2018 opponents.

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After looking at two of the three non-conference opponents earlier in the offseason, we’ll look in to a team few in Badger nation have likely seen over the past few years. It’s a team that sits in turmoil as we speak, as the New Mexico Lobos head coach, Bob Davie, is embroiled in a controversy over actions with police and players. He’s currently on a 30-day suspension and could be gone from the program.

But, with that in mind, let’s still take a look at what this team could look like on the field.

Let’s look at the New Mexico Lobos of 2018.

Profile:

Head Coach: Bob Davie (30-45 at New Mexico, 65-70 overall)
2017 Record: 3-9 (1-7 Mountain West)
Bowl Game: none
Returning Starters: 13 (overall) — 6 on offense, 7 on defense

Player to Watch:

Tevaka Tuioti, QB 

New Mexico graduated quarterback Jordan Lamar and with him went a lot of the experience in the Lobos backfield. Lamar’s understudy this last season was freshman quarterback Tevaka Tuioti. He played in eight games this past season, carrying the ball 28 times for 142 yards and a touchdown. It was good experience for the young quarterback and he may be the right person for the job. But, he may not be the winner of the competition and the Lobos are very much accustomed to two-quarterback systems in the past.

The question remains as to how Tuioti responds to being in the mix for the starting role. He’s certainly going to get a challenge from JUCO transfer Sheriron Jones, who was the No. 8 dual-threat quarterback in the JUCO rankings according to 247Sports. You don’t bring in that kind of player without the intention of having him at least compete openly for the starting role. Personally, Tuioti shows more long-term promise, but we’ll see.

 

Wisconsin’s Biggest Advantage:

Talent

Yes, the Badgers will have some holes to plug on the defensive front seven, but it has been next man up for a while in Madison and that doesn’t appear ready to stop any time soon. Even with the missing parts, the Badgers return a Heisman Trophy front-runner in Jonathan Taylor, have every starting offensive lineman returning, every starting wide receiver returning and get Butkus Award finalist and All-American linebacker T.J. Edwards back too.

Compare that with New Mexico, who went from a division title in 2016 to winning just one game in conference last season. As you’d expect it was a sparse year for the Lobos on the All-Mountain West teams, with just one player making either the first or second teams and only four players earning even Honorable Mention looks. All but one of those five players are gone, with offensive lineman Aaron Jenkins the only returning player from that list (and he was honorable mention).

There’s a massive gap in the talent that these two programs have and that should be enough to get by even on UW’s worst day. Oh, and the fact that Wisconsin doesn’t have a cloud of suspicion hanging around the head of its head coach this offseason certainly should help matters.

 

Wisconsin’s Biggest Worry:

Triple-Option

New Mexico is one of a handful of team that will run the triple-option offense, which can be tricky. Hence how the Lobos averaged 235.4 yards per game on the ground despite a losing record.

With four of seven starters gone from UW’s defense, including both starting defensive ends and both starting outside linebackers, this could be a team that scares Wisconsin early on. It does help that only one of the top 4 running backs return next season, but that returner is a dangerous one in Tyrone Owens. He’s got 1,988 career rushing yards and averages 6.6 yards per carry in the Lobo’s triple-option offense.

But, Owens is the only real known in the Lobos offense heading in to 2018 and that makes even this “worry” category a minor one. Wisconsin’s defense may not see the triple-option very often, but the Lobos are far from perfecting it by the time they come to Camp Randall…and who knows if Bob Davie will even be the head coach, and thus still be using the triple-option, by the time this game even rolls around.

Andy Coppens is the Founder and Publisher of Talking10. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America (FWAA) and has been covering college sports in some capacity since 2008. You can follow him on Twitter @AndyOnFootball

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Badgers football

REPORT: Former Badgers QB Hornibrook transfers to FSU

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It apparently didn’t take long for former Wisconsin badgers starting quarterback Alex Hornibrook to find a new home.

After spending a few days on a visit to Florida State, reports indicate he will land with the Seminoles.

Hornibrook announced his intention to graduate in May and move on from the Badgers in a statement at the end of February.

His move to FSU makes a lot of sense, as the Seminoles have a huge void at QB and hardly anyone in the position group this upcoming season.

Following the dismissal of former starting QB Deondre Francois, the Seminoles has just one scholarship quarterback on the roster.

That was redshirt sophomore James Blackman, who has started in the past but also explored his own potential transfer this offseason.

As for the Badgers, this spring will see a wide open competition for the starting quarterback job.

There is four-game starter Jack coan, along with walk-on Danny Vanden Boom. We’ll also get the first big look at redshirt freshman Chase Wolf and the highest rated quarterback to come to Wisconsin in Graham Mertz.

It appears both sides of this transfer are getting what they want and that’s the best outcome you could hope for.

Hornibrook won’t have to compete with four other quarterbacks and the Badgers can get a better read on their realistic options for 2019 and beyond this spring.

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Badgers football

2019 NFL Combine results for Badgers players

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The next step up for many former Wisconsin Badgers is the NFL. For eight players that step included an invite to the annual player combine, where teams test and poke and prod players for an entire weekend.

So, how did the Badgers fare? Let’s take a look at results and talk coming out of the combine.

D’Cota Dixon

40-yard dash: 4.81 seconds
Bench Press: 20 reps
Vertical Jump: 33.5″
Broad Jump: 119.0″

What was said about Dixon (from Lance Zierlein): Although he was an interchangeable, versatile safety in college, Dixon may need a more static position in the pros to minimize his exposure. He can handle man cover duties, but his instincts and anticipation aren’t good enough to make up for his lack of closing burst and his lack of height limits his ability to challenge deep jump balls. He does have some talent, however, and could compete for a backup role with an eye on dime linebacker or a Cover-2, Cover-4 safety.

Prospect Grade: 5.26 (NFL Backup or Special Teams Potential)

Beau Benzschawel

MADISON, WI – NOVEMBER 18: Beau Benzschawel #66 of the Wisconsin Badgers in action during a game against the Michigan Wolverines at Camp Randall Stadium on November 18, 2017 in Madison, Wisconsin. Wisconsin won 24-10. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

40-yard dash: 5.24 seconds
Bench Press: 20 reps

What was said about Benzschawel: Tall, pass-blocking specialist who will need to prove he can be serviceable against NFL power in the run game to become a future starter. Benzschawel plays with good technique and an understanding of blocking concepts in the run game, but might lack the play strength at point of attack NFL teams look for. However, his allure to GMs and offensive coaches could be his ability to match up against athletic, sub-package rushers in today’s quickness-oriented rush approaches.

Prospect Grade: 5.55 (Chance to Become NFL Starter)

Michael Deiter

MADISON, WI – AUGUST 31: Wisconsin offensive lineman Tyler Biadasz (61) and Wisconsin offensive lineman Michael Deiter (63) block for Wisconsin quarterback Alex Hornibrook (12) during a college football game between the University of Wisconsin Badgers and the Western Kentucky University Hilltoppers on August 31, 2018 at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, WI. (Photo by Lawrence Iles/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

40-yard dash: 5.23 seconds
Bench Press: 21 reps
Vertical Jump: 28″
Broad Jump: 105.0″
3-cone drill: 7.88 seconds
20-yard shuttle: 4.81 seconds

What was said: Durable, capable guard/center prospect who knows how to play the game but might lack the athletic elements needed to become a full-time starter on the next level. Dieter’s experience in a variety of pro-style rushing schemes and his overall technique work are in his favor while his experience across the line offer flexibility that could lock him into an NFL roster as an early backup with the potential to step in and start if needed.

Prospect Grade: 5.60 (Chance to Become NFL Starter)

David Edwards

MADISON, WI – SEPTEMBER 01: Wisconsin Badger offensive lineman David Edwards (79) looks for someone to block durning an college football game between the Utah State Aggies and the Wisconsin Badgers on September 1st, 2017, at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, WI. Wisconsin defated Utah State 59-10. (Photo by Dan Sanger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

40-yard dash: 5.28 seconds
Bench Press:
Vertical Jump: 25.5″
Broad Jump: 99.0″
3-cone drill: 7.69 seconds
20-yard shuttle: 4.77 seconds

What was said: Quarterback-turned-tight-end-turned-right-tackle who has maintained his light feet but is missing functional strength and body control to hold his ground against NFL power. Edwards isn’t the technician we’ve come to expect from the Wisconsin program and he’ll need additional technique work to help make up for some of his physical deficiencies. He’s still a pup as an offensive lineman and he should improve with more experience and weight room work, but it’s tough to project him behind average backup to low-end starter at this point.

Prospect Grade: 5.44 (NFL Backup or Special Teams Potential)

Ryan Connelly

40-yard dash: 4.66 seconds
Bench Press:
Vertical Jump: 34.5″
Broad Jump: 118.0″
3-cone drill: 7.09 seconds
20-yard shuttle: 4.31 seconds

What was said: Connelly fits the Wisconsin mold of tough, productive linebackers who end up lacking either size or speed as NFL projections. He’s not big enough to play SAM and he’s not fast enough to play WILL so he’ll end up as a slightly smaller/slower 3-4 or 4-3 inside backer. He does a decent job of playing around his deficiencies and finding ways to make impact tackles and he’s fairly instinctive is zone coverage. He has the demeanor and play traits to become a solid special teamer with average backup potential.

Prospect Grade: 5.36 (NFL Backup or Special Teams Potential)

T.J. Edwards

MADISON, WI – SEPTEMBER 08:Wisconsin Badgers inside linebacker T.J. Edwards (53) goes for a diving tackle on New Mexico Lobos wide receiver Jay Griffin IV (23) during an college football game between the New Mexico Lobos and the Wisconsin Badgers on September 8th, 2018 at the Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, WI. Wisconsin defeats New Mexico 45-14. (Photo by Dan Sanger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

40-yard dash:
Bench Press: 16
Vertical Jump:
Broad Jump:
3-cone drill:
20-yard shuttle:

What was said: Stout four-year starter who shows up and does his job each week as a banger in the box with surprising ball skills to flip the field. He improved each season and his off-season weight loss is indicative of how seriously he takes the game. He lacks desired chase speed and might be maxed out as a player, but he doesn’t make many dire mistakes that hurt his team. Edwards is a backup inside linebacker for a 3-4 or 4-3 defense with the ability to step up and handle starter’s duties if needed.

Prospect Grade: 5.47 (NFL Backup or Special Teams Potential)

Andrew Van Ginkel

40-yard dash:
Bench Press: 17
Vertical Jump: 38″
Broad Jump: 123.0″
3-cone drill: 6.89 seconds
20-yard shuttle: 4.14 seconds

What was said: Unimposing 3-4 outside linebacker with decent athletic ability but a concerning lack of aggression as a run blocker and consistency as a pass-rusher. Van Ginkel has the motor to tally stats with effort and secondary rush, but he needs a better rush plan and more proactive hands to set him up for success in attacking the quarterback. He will need a lot more strength and toughness to hold up as a run defender, but his length and production on special teams could give him a shot at the back end of the roster or on a practice squad.

Prospect Grade: 5.0 (50-50 chance to make an NFL roster)

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Badgers football

Hornibrook’s gone, but questions remain the same for Badgers QB’s

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If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right?

It’s hard to argue that the formula that the Wisconsin Badgers have used for nearly 30 years has been highly successful. Play great defense, pound your opponent in to submission and catch them with a deep ball or two along the way.

UW has gone to six Rose Bowls, participated in two College Football Playoff bowl games and won six Big Ten titles in those nearly 30 years and with said formula.

But, that last part has been missing from the Badgers offense for awhile now…you know, since Russell Wilson stopped dazzling us with his rocket arm and escapability back in 2011.

From Joel Stave to Alex Hornibrook and other quarterbacks in between, the UW offense has struggled to find that guy who makes opponents respect his arm enough to stop stuffing the line of scrimmage.

With the news on Wednesday that Hornibrook would be transferring from the program for his final season, the competition is now wide open for the next Badgers starting quarterback.

The bar for success is admittedly low, after all, the Badgers finished 102nd in the country last season with 14 interceptions and 119th in passing offense (157.7 passing yards per game). Nearly anything would be better than what the quarterbacks of 2018 produced.

Losing Hornibrook does mean losing an experienced player, but does it matter much when that player had 33 interceptions in as many games played?

Sure, he was 26-6 as a starter over three years. But, was that because of or in spite of him? I’d argue having one of the best defenses and running back groups in the country has been the driver of that success, not Hornibrook.

Which brings me to the question at hand — is there a quarterback on the Badgers roster that can be someone other teams have to respect? Is there another player ala Russell Wilson, who is capable of taking this offense from ground and pound to three dimensional?

Let’s start with a look at the only quarterback on the roster to play a college game — Jack Coan.

Last season we got the biggest glimpse of Coan to date and what was shown wasn’t all that promising. He played in five games, starting four and completed 60.2 percent of his passes for 515 yards and 5 touchdowns to 3 interceptions.

There was plenty left to be desired, but I also wonder if it was because of too much protection from the coaching staff or just not being ready for the situation. Often the game plan called for Coan to dink and dunk the ball and he was never really given the opportunity to unleash the deep ball.

It seemed like the coaching staff was trying hard to get away with not having to put the game on the sophomore quarterback.

Coan now has those four starts under his belt and with Honribrook out of the way has the experience advantage over everyone else. But, is experience enough?

We’re about to find out, because the Badgers have one of the top quarterbacks in the 2019 class in the fold this spring in Graham Mertz.

Last we saw him, he was setting records at The All-American Bowl game en route to MVP honors. He was flinging the ball deep and accurately, something Badgers fans haven’t seen from a quarterback since Wilson came in to save this team in 2011.

But, there is bound to be a learning curve as Mertz transitions away from spread-based concepts to more under center work. How that transition goes this spring and how quickly he understands and executes the playbook will be telling.

The good news is that we’ve seen Mertz challenged against the best competition in the country at the quarterback position and he’s lived up to billing on every occasion. If ever there was a QB up to the challenge of playing early in a Badgers uniform, it is Mertz.

But, that doesn’t mean he has to be “the guy” either. There are other options to consider already on the Badgers roster.

Both Danny Vanden Boom and Chase Wolf flashed moments of potential all last offseason. In fact, Vanden Boom outplayed Coan throughout most of last spring before tailing off a bit in the competition in the fall.

Could Vande Boom pick it back up this spring and become a viable option? The former Kimberly star and walk-on at UW certainly has played at a level that makes giving him a legitimate chance this spring worthwhile.

On the other hand, Wolf was one of five quarterbacks in the mix last offseason and his reps have been limited. He’ll likely see many more this spring and it’s a chance to shine.

There’s no doubt he’s the dark horse in the race to replace Hornibrook, but with a full year of studying and learning the Badgers offense you never know what will happen when he gets his chance this spring.

All of this leads me to this conclusion — no one, not even the coaching staff has a real answer as to whom will lead the Badgers offense in 2019. If anyone tells you they do, it’s just an uneducated guess at best.

But, what I do know is that spring camp provides the coaches and players the best opportunity to fully understand what the quarterbacks could be capable of in 2019.

There’s little need to get work in in the run game save for the offensive line, but what is going to be important is pressure-testing the quarterbacks. Doing so in a controlled environment like spring ball is a great way to do so.

If the Badgers want to transform from a good team to a great one, they’ll need to find that transformational quarterback as soon as possible. It could also be that the coaching staff needs to find ways to transform the Badgers offense in small ways to take advantage of the quarterback’s strengths.

Hopefully there’s a positive answer that emerges following spring ball.

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Hornibrook leaves Badgers, enters name in transfer portal

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The Wisconsin Badgers will have a new starting quarterback in 2019, as senior quarterback Alex Hornibrook announced his departure from the program.

“Alex informed us of his decision to leave the team earlier today,” head coach Paul Chryst said in a statement. “He contributed to a lot of our recent success and we want to thank him for all he did for our program. We wish him the best of luck.”

Not only is Hornibrook not playing for the Badgers next season, he has also entered his name in to the transfer portal and will look to play elsewhere next year.

Hornibrook went 26-6 in three seasons as a starting quarterback for the Badgers, including a 20-4 record in Big Ten games. His .813 winning percentage is the best of any quarterback in program history.

He ranks in a tie for third all-time at Wisconsin in touchdown passes (47), fourth in completion percentage (60.5%) and fifth in passing yards (5,438).

That would normally suggest this loss is a big blow. But, there have always been serious questions as to just how much he was contributing to the cause of that 22-6 record.

Additionally, he benefited from longevity quite a bit. Hornibrook started from his redshirt freshman season played in the majority of three seasons, which hasn’t been the normal rate for quarterbacks in college football or at Wisconsin specifically.

There are also the mounds of interceptions to consider as well, as Hornibrook threw 33 interceptions to just 47 touchdowns in his first three years. He also contributed 11 interceptions towards last season’s 14 total as team. That ranked 102nd in the country.

The Badgers will start their search for a new starting quarterback on March 26.

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