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Badgers football

How do analytics see Badgers remaining schedule playing out?

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Earlier this season we took a look at what those with the analytical mind thought about the Wisconsin Badgers second half schedule. The popular consensus was a 9-win team. 

Following a loss to Northwestern, which the analytics had at a 62.9 percent chance (ESPN FPI) of winning, things have certainly changed in a hurry. 

With the Badgers no longer controlling their own destiny, a win every week becomes much more important. UW will have to put pressure on Iowa and Northwestern ahead of them. In order to do that it may mean winning out. 

So, as we come to the final month of the season, how do the numbers stack up? Will the Badgers be able to win out and get to Indianapolis anyway?

We’ll look at perhaps the three most comprehensive set of analytics out there — ESPN’s FPI, S&P+ and College Football Analytics

Nov. 3: vs. Rutgers

PISCATAWAY, NJ – SEPTEMBER 29: Rutgers Scarlet Knights running back Raheem Blackshear (2) runs during the College Football Game between the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and the Indiana Hoosiers on September 29, 2018, at HighPoint.com Stadium in Piscataway, NJ. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

ESPN FPI: 96.7%
S&P+: 95%
CFB Analytics: 75.6% 

Thoughts: This game has the earmarkings of a smash mouth disaster for the visiting Scarlet Knights. Chris Ash hasn’t been able to get his Rutgers defense on track since arriving in Piscataway. Wisconsin’s run game (as long as Jonathan Taylor isn’t fumbling the football away) should be plenty enough to get the job done. 

Nov. 10: @ Penn State

College Football: Penn State QB Trace McSorley (9) in action vs Appalachian State at Beaver Stadium. University Park, PA 9/1/2018 CREDIT: Simon Bruty (Photo by Simon Bruty /Sports Illustrated/Getty Images) (Set Number: X162101 TK1 )

ESPN FPI:  21.2%
S&P+: 37%
CFB Analytics: 45.8%

Thoughts: It’s interesting to see the varying degrees to which the analytics used by these organizations have the Badgers chances. Do I believe Wisconsin has nearly a 50/50 chance of winning this game? No. Do I believe they have a better than 21 percent chance? Yes. I wouldn’t be surprised to see UW play well in this game and still find a way to drop this one. 

Nov. 17: @ Purdue

WEST LAFAYETTE, IN – SEPTEMBER 22: Purdue Boilermakers quarterback David Blough (11) throws downfield during the college football game between the Purdue Boilermakers and Boston College Eagles on September 22, 2018, at Ross-Ade Stadium in West Lafayette, IN. (Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

ESPN FPI: 44.4%
S&P+: 53%
CFB Analytics: 51%

Thoughts: After watching Purdue as of late, this is a team that is on the verge of being a real contender in the West division. They proved that in a win at home against Ohio State. This seems to be a team of two sides of the ball — an offense full of explosive plays and a defense capable of showing up but also giving up the big play themselves. This one is more about which Purdue defense shows up. I say all of that to basically say it comes down to a coin-flip for me just like the analytics say. 

Nov. 24: vs. Minnesota

MINNEAPOLIS, MN – AUGUST 31: Minnesota Golden Gophers running back Rodney Smith (1) jukes Buffalo Bulls cornerback Cameron Lewis (39) in the 1st quarter during the non-conference game between the Buffalo Bulls and the Minnesota Golden Gophers on August 31, 2017 at TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by David Berding/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

ESPN FPI: 84.3%
S&P+: 75%
CFB Analytics: 61.3%

Thoughts: Will it be Zack Annexstad or Tanner Morgan at quarterback for the Gophers? If it’s Morgan I’m much less bullish on this game than I was with Annexstad behind center. Morgan took on a decent Indiana defense in his first start and was spectacular in leading the comeback win this past weekend. Annexstad may have more experience (barely), but he isn’t nearly as explosive. I’ll reserve judgement until game week, but don’t be surprised to see these numbers move a lot in the next few weeks. 

Bottom Line: 

While numbers never take in to account the total human factor of the game, analytics can provide insight that the human eye never really catches. At the very least, it quantifies what you see and can’t explain. 

In the case of the Badgers hopes to win a Big Ten West division title, the numbers clearly suggest that the road ahead is going to be rough. UW is going to have to buck the numbers against both Penn State and now Purdue to get to the goal of winning out and putting the pressure squarely on Iowa and Northwestern to continue to win too. 

That said, a 7-5 season would be an utter disaster for this program and a big indictment on the coaching staff as a whole. Yes, there were changes and personnel that were missing. Yes, there were injuries, but what team doesn’t have them? You get the point.

Can the Badgers buck those numbers and avoid complete failure? Time will tell and with this team as of late anything is possible — including the biggest goal of winning out and still playing for a Big Ten championship. 

Just don’t count on it if you believe in the numbers. 

Andy Coppens is the Founder and Publisher of Talking10. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America (FWAA) and has been covering college sports in some capacity since 2008. You can follow him on Twitter @AndyOnFootball

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Badgers football

REPORT: Former Badgers QB Hornibrook transfers to FSU

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It apparently didn’t take long for former Wisconsin badgers starting quarterback Alex Hornibrook to find a new home.

After spending a few days on a visit to Florida State, reports indicate he will land with the Seminoles.

Hornibrook announced his intention to graduate in May and move on from the Badgers in a statement at the end of February.

His move to FSU makes a lot of sense, as the Seminoles have a huge void at QB and hardly anyone in the position group this upcoming season.

Following the dismissal of former starting QB Deondre Francois, the Seminoles has just one scholarship quarterback on the roster.

That was redshirt sophomore James Blackman, who has started in the past but also explored his own potential transfer this offseason.

As for the Badgers, this spring will see a wide open competition for the starting quarterback job.

There is four-game starter Jack coan, along with walk-on Danny Vanden Boom. We’ll also get the first big look at redshirt freshman Chase Wolf and the highest rated quarterback to come to Wisconsin in Graham Mertz.

It appears both sides of this transfer are getting what they want and that’s the best outcome you could hope for.

Hornibrook won’t have to compete with four other quarterbacks and the Badgers can get a better read on their realistic options for 2019 and beyond this spring.

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Badgers football

2019 NFL Combine results for Badgers players

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The next step up for many former Wisconsin Badgers is the NFL. For eight players that step included an invite to the annual player combine, where teams test and poke and prod players for an entire weekend.

So, how did the Badgers fare? Let’s take a look at results and talk coming out of the combine.

D’Cota Dixon

40-yard dash: 4.81 seconds
Bench Press: 20 reps
Vertical Jump: 33.5″
Broad Jump: 119.0″

What was said about Dixon (from Lance Zierlein): Although he was an interchangeable, versatile safety in college, Dixon may need a more static position in the pros to minimize his exposure. He can handle man cover duties, but his instincts and anticipation aren’t good enough to make up for his lack of closing burst and his lack of height limits his ability to challenge deep jump balls. He does have some talent, however, and could compete for a backup role with an eye on dime linebacker or a Cover-2, Cover-4 safety.

Prospect Grade: 5.26 (NFL Backup or Special Teams Potential)

Beau Benzschawel

MADISON, WI – NOVEMBER 18: Beau Benzschawel #66 of the Wisconsin Badgers in action during a game against the Michigan Wolverines at Camp Randall Stadium on November 18, 2017 in Madison, Wisconsin. Wisconsin won 24-10. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

40-yard dash: 5.24 seconds
Bench Press: 20 reps

What was said about Benzschawel: Tall, pass-blocking specialist who will need to prove he can be serviceable against NFL power in the run game to become a future starter. Benzschawel plays with good technique and an understanding of blocking concepts in the run game, but might lack the play strength at point of attack NFL teams look for. However, his allure to GMs and offensive coaches could be his ability to match up against athletic, sub-package rushers in today’s quickness-oriented rush approaches.

Prospect Grade: 5.55 (Chance to Become NFL Starter)

Michael Deiter

MADISON, WI – AUGUST 31: Wisconsin offensive lineman Tyler Biadasz (61) and Wisconsin offensive lineman Michael Deiter (63) block for Wisconsin quarterback Alex Hornibrook (12) during a college football game between the University of Wisconsin Badgers and the Western Kentucky University Hilltoppers on August 31, 2018 at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, WI. (Photo by Lawrence Iles/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

40-yard dash: 5.23 seconds
Bench Press: 21 reps
Vertical Jump: 28″
Broad Jump: 105.0″
3-cone drill: 7.88 seconds
20-yard shuttle: 4.81 seconds

What was said: Durable, capable guard/center prospect who knows how to play the game but might lack the athletic elements needed to become a full-time starter on the next level. Dieter’s experience in a variety of pro-style rushing schemes and his overall technique work are in his favor while his experience across the line offer flexibility that could lock him into an NFL roster as an early backup with the potential to step in and start if needed.

Prospect Grade: 5.60 (Chance to Become NFL Starter)

David Edwards

MADISON, WI – SEPTEMBER 01: Wisconsin Badger offensive lineman David Edwards (79) looks for someone to block durning an college football game between the Utah State Aggies and the Wisconsin Badgers on September 1st, 2017, at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, WI. Wisconsin defated Utah State 59-10. (Photo by Dan Sanger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

40-yard dash: 5.28 seconds
Bench Press:
Vertical Jump: 25.5″
Broad Jump: 99.0″
3-cone drill: 7.69 seconds
20-yard shuttle: 4.77 seconds

What was said: Quarterback-turned-tight-end-turned-right-tackle who has maintained his light feet but is missing functional strength and body control to hold his ground against NFL power. Edwards isn’t the technician we’ve come to expect from the Wisconsin program and he’ll need additional technique work to help make up for some of his physical deficiencies. He’s still a pup as an offensive lineman and he should improve with more experience and weight room work, but it’s tough to project him behind average backup to low-end starter at this point.

Prospect Grade: 5.44 (NFL Backup or Special Teams Potential)

Ryan Connelly

40-yard dash: 4.66 seconds
Bench Press:
Vertical Jump: 34.5″
Broad Jump: 118.0″
3-cone drill: 7.09 seconds
20-yard shuttle: 4.31 seconds

What was said: Connelly fits the Wisconsin mold of tough, productive linebackers who end up lacking either size or speed as NFL projections. He’s not big enough to play SAM and he’s not fast enough to play WILL so he’ll end up as a slightly smaller/slower 3-4 or 4-3 inside backer. He does a decent job of playing around his deficiencies and finding ways to make impact tackles and he’s fairly instinctive is zone coverage. He has the demeanor and play traits to become a solid special teamer with average backup potential.

Prospect Grade: 5.36 (NFL Backup or Special Teams Potential)

T.J. Edwards

MADISON, WI – SEPTEMBER 08:Wisconsin Badgers inside linebacker T.J. Edwards (53) goes for a diving tackle on New Mexico Lobos wide receiver Jay Griffin IV (23) during an college football game between the New Mexico Lobos and the Wisconsin Badgers on September 8th, 2018 at the Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, WI. Wisconsin defeats New Mexico 45-14. (Photo by Dan Sanger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

40-yard dash:
Bench Press: 16
Vertical Jump:
Broad Jump:
3-cone drill:
20-yard shuttle:

What was said: Stout four-year starter who shows up and does his job each week as a banger in the box with surprising ball skills to flip the field. He improved each season and his off-season weight loss is indicative of how seriously he takes the game. He lacks desired chase speed and might be maxed out as a player, but he doesn’t make many dire mistakes that hurt his team. Edwards is a backup inside linebacker for a 3-4 or 4-3 defense with the ability to step up and handle starter’s duties if needed.

Prospect Grade: 5.47 (NFL Backup or Special Teams Potential)

Andrew Van Ginkel

40-yard dash:
Bench Press: 17
Vertical Jump: 38″
Broad Jump: 123.0″
3-cone drill: 6.89 seconds
20-yard shuttle: 4.14 seconds

What was said: Unimposing 3-4 outside linebacker with decent athletic ability but a concerning lack of aggression as a run blocker and consistency as a pass-rusher. Van Ginkel has the motor to tally stats with effort and secondary rush, but he needs a better rush plan and more proactive hands to set him up for success in attacking the quarterback. He will need a lot more strength and toughness to hold up as a run defender, but his length and production on special teams could give him a shot at the back end of the roster or on a practice squad.

Prospect Grade: 5.0 (50-50 chance to make an NFL roster)

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Badgers football

Hornibrook’s gone, but questions remain the same for Badgers QB’s

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If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right?

It’s hard to argue that the formula that the Wisconsin Badgers have used for nearly 30 years has been highly successful. Play great defense, pound your opponent in to submission and catch them with a deep ball or two along the way.

UW has gone to six Rose Bowls, participated in two College Football Playoff bowl games and won six Big Ten titles in those nearly 30 years and with said formula.

But, that last part has been missing from the Badgers offense for awhile now…you know, since Russell Wilson stopped dazzling us with his rocket arm and escapability back in 2011.

From Joel Stave to Alex Hornibrook and other quarterbacks in between, the UW offense has struggled to find that guy who makes opponents respect his arm enough to stop stuffing the line of scrimmage.

With the news on Wednesday that Hornibrook would be transferring from the program for his final season, the competition is now wide open for the next Badgers starting quarterback.

The bar for success is admittedly low, after all, the Badgers finished 102nd in the country last season with 14 interceptions and 119th in passing offense (157.7 passing yards per game). Nearly anything would be better than what the quarterbacks of 2018 produced.

Losing Hornibrook does mean losing an experienced player, but does it matter much when that player had 33 interceptions in as many games played?

Sure, he was 26-6 as a starter over three years. But, was that because of or in spite of him? I’d argue having one of the best defenses and running back groups in the country has been the driver of that success, not Hornibrook.

Which brings me to the question at hand — is there a quarterback on the Badgers roster that can be someone other teams have to respect? Is there another player ala Russell Wilson, who is capable of taking this offense from ground and pound to three dimensional?

Let’s start with a look at the only quarterback on the roster to play a college game — Jack Coan.

Last season we got the biggest glimpse of Coan to date and what was shown wasn’t all that promising. He played in five games, starting four and completed 60.2 percent of his passes for 515 yards and 5 touchdowns to 3 interceptions.

There was plenty left to be desired, but I also wonder if it was because of too much protection from the coaching staff or just not being ready for the situation. Often the game plan called for Coan to dink and dunk the ball and he was never really given the opportunity to unleash the deep ball.

It seemed like the coaching staff was trying hard to get away with not having to put the game on the sophomore quarterback.

Coan now has those four starts under his belt and with Honribrook out of the way has the experience advantage over everyone else. But, is experience enough?

We’re about to find out, because the Badgers have one of the top quarterbacks in the 2019 class in the fold this spring in Graham Mertz.

Last we saw him, he was setting records at The All-American Bowl game en route to MVP honors. He was flinging the ball deep and accurately, something Badgers fans haven’t seen from a quarterback since Wilson came in to save this team in 2011.

But, there is bound to be a learning curve as Mertz transitions away from spread-based concepts to more under center work. How that transition goes this spring and how quickly he understands and executes the playbook will be telling.

The good news is that we’ve seen Mertz challenged against the best competition in the country at the quarterback position and he’s lived up to billing on every occasion. If ever there was a QB up to the challenge of playing early in a Badgers uniform, it is Mertz.

But, that doesn’t mean he has to be “the guy” either. There are other options to consider already on the Badgers roster.

Both Danny Vanden Boom and Chase Wolf flashed moments of potential all last offseason. In fact, Vanden Boom outplayed Coan throughout most of last spring before tailing off a bit in the competition in the fall.

Could Vande Boom pick it back up this spring and become a viable option? The former Kimberly star and walk-on at UW certainly has played at a level that makes giving him a legitimate chance this spring worthwhile.

On the other hand, Wolf was one of five quarterbacks in the mix last offseason and his reps have been limited. He’ll likely see many more this spring and it’s a chance to shine.

There’s no doubt he’s the dark horse in the race to replace Hornibrook, but with a full year of studying and learning the Badgers offense you never know what will happen when he gets his chance this spring.

All of this leads me to this conclusion — no one, not even the coaching staff has a real answer as to whom will lead the Badgers offense in 2019. If anyone tells you they do, it’s just an uneducated guess at best.

But, what I do know is that spring camp provides the coaches and players the best opportunity to fully understand what the quarterbacks could be capable of in 2019.

There’s little need to get work in in the run game save for the offensive line, but what is going to be important is pressure-testing the quarterbacks. Doing so in a controlled environment like spring ball is a great way to do so.

If the Badgers want to transform from a good team to a great one, they’ll need to find that transformational quarterback as soon as possible. It could also be that the coaching staff needs to find ways to transform the Badgers offense in small ways to take advantage of the quarterback’s strengths.

Hopefully there’s a positive answer that emerges following spring ball.

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Hornibrook leaves Badgers, enters name in transfer portal

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The Wisconsin Badgers will have a new starting quarterback in 2019, as senior quarterback Alex Hornibrook announced his departure from the program.

“Alex informed us of his decision to leave the team earlier today,” head coach Paul Chryst said in a statement. “He contributed to a lot of our recent success and we want to thank him for all he did for our program. We wish him the best of luck.”

Not only is Hornibrook not playing for the Badgers next season, he has also entered his name in to the transfer portal and will look to play elsewhere next year.

Hornibrook went 26-6 in three seasons as a starting quarterback for the Badgers, including a 20-4 record in Big Ten games. His .813 winning percentage is the best of any quarterback in program history.

He ranks in a tie for third all-time at Wisconsin in touchdown passes (47), fourth in completion percentage (60.5%) and fifth in passing yards (5,438).

That would normally suggest this loss is a big blow. But, there have always been serious questions as to just how much he was contributing to the cause of that 22-6 record.

Additionally, he benefited from longevity quite a bit. Hornibrook started from his redshirt freshman season played in the majority of three seasons, which hasn’t been the normal rate for quarterbacks in college football or at Wisconsin specifically.

There are also the mounds of interceptions to consider as well, as Hornibrook threw 33 interceptions to just 47 touchdowns in his first three years. He also contributed 11 interceptions towards last season’s 14 total as team. That ranked 102nd in the country.

The Badgers will start their search for a new starting quarterback on March 26.

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