Big lights, Big House, big stage.
Wisconsin will take on Michigan in the marque matchup in the Big Ten this week. While we’ve give you things to know and what we’ll be watching for now is the time to put it all together.
How does the Badger and Wolverines clash actually go down? Let’s dive in to the biggest game to date on the Wisconsin 2018 schedule.
1 Burning Question: Was last week’s defensive effort a sign of things to come for Badgers?
This is a two-sided question. One on side of the question is the fact that we finally saw the Badgers get some major pressure on an opposing quarterback. On the other side of the question is the fact that Wisconsin just gave up over 500 yards of total offense to a bad Nebraska team.
Wisconsin’s defense had Martinez on the run or buried in the backfield for much of the contest last Saturday night and ended the night with two sacks and five tackles for loss. Compared to coming in to the game with just three total sacks (no game with more than one) and just 20 tackles for loss as a team, it was a virtual feast for the Badgers defense.
Despite that outburst, the Badgers are still dead last in the Big Ten in both sacks and tackles for loss — and that is very un-Badger like since the switch to the 3-4 defense earlier in the decade.
The hope has to be that the new players are finally coming in to their own. But, then there’s the reminder that Nebraska’s offensive line isn’t, well, very good.
Can the Badgers keep up the pressure while not giving up the big chunk plays it did a week ago? My guess is that this is a sign of things to come and with Shea Patterson nowhere near the level of athlete that Adrian Martinez is, the Badgers may be able to limit his ability to get big plays out of scramble situations.
But, either way things go the point remains that this defense is likely to dictate what needs to happen for the rest of the team. If the Badgers are going to be successful, they can’t go backwards on the pressure front.
2 Key Stats
16: Both Michigan and Wisconsin have scored 16 touchdowns inside the red zone this year.
As much as people want to focus on the defense, both teams have proven to be highly dangerous on offense if they get inside the red zone. In fact, both teams are in the top four of the Big Ten in red zone conversions this year.
Wisconsin is third in the league, converting on 95 percent of its opportunities, while Michigan is converting at a 88 precent clip. However, Wisconsin’s 16 touchdowns represent all but four (88 percent) of their red zone scores this season compared to Michigan’s 16 touchdowns representing just 64 percent of its red zone production.
The opportunities inside the opponents 20-yard line could be few and far between, so converting those in to full points will be huge.
100: Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor has rushed for 100 yards in all five games this season.
It’s no secret that when JT gets going the Badgers become very hard to beat. So far this year, no team has really been able to stop Taylor from impacting a game in a great way for UW.
Taylor leads the country in rushing average at 169.8 yards per game and he is second in total rushing yards. He only trails Darrel Henderson of Memphis (934) and Jamal Jefferson of Oregon State (865) in rushing yards and does so despite having one fewer game than both of them.
Michigan’s defense has been up to the task almost all season long against the run, allowing just 17 of their last 32 opponents to go over the 100-yard mark as a team. The Wolverines are 16-1 when holding an opponent under 100 yards on the ground.
Taylor did go over the 100-yard mark last season, racking up 132 yards on just 19 carries in the Badgers win. However, Michigan did hold him out of the end zone.
Something is going to have to give in this matchup of quality running back and difficult defense.
3 Key Players
David Edwards, RT (Wisconsin)
Wisconsin has one of the top-rated offensive lines in the country, but some would say that right tackle David Edwards is having a bit of a down year. In fact, after being a right-side dominant run team in 2017, the Badgers are doing their most damage on the other side of the line this year.
Given the fact that Hornibrook is left handed and Michigan loves blitzing, Edwards is going to be a key player in the mix on Saturday night. Luckily, the Badgers have given up just 8 sacks so far on the year, a mark that is tied for second in the Big Ten with…Michigan.
Rashan Gary, NG (Michigan)
The Wolverines have a ton of quality players on the defensive side of the ball, but its biggest strength has been up the middle. That has been under pressure as of late with some losses to injury and that includes star Rashan Gary. He missed the first game of his career last week, but don’t expect that to happen this week.
Gary comes in to this game having 22 total tackles, 4.5 tackles for loss and 2.0 sacks to his name. If Wisconsin can take him out of the game and not allow him to dominate in the middle it could be very helpful to getting the run game going.
Danny Davis, WR (Wisconsin)
Michigan is going to come in wanting to stop the run game. So, that means the Badgers wide receivers are going to have to step up to the plate and make them back off the run game.
The one player who has the best ability to get deep and make Michigan pay one-on-one is Davis. He has only played in three games this season, but so far he is catching up fast with eight receptions for 90 yards and a touchdown.
He’s due for a breakout game and while doing it against a tough Michigan defense won’t be easy, my money would be on Davis being the one that surprises in this game.
Michigan 24, Wisconsin 21
It is tempting to pick the Badgers in this matchup because putting the tape of the Notre Dame game on from earlier in the year reminds me that while Michigan’s vaunted defense can be scary, they don’t do well when the other team actually has the ability to be physical as well.
So, what is holding me back from picking the Badgers? It ultimately comes down to the lack of experience in the secondary and the amount of injuries piling up on that side of the ball.
REPORT: Former Badgers QB Hornibrook transfers to FSU
It apparently didn’t take long for former Wisconsin badgers starting quarterback Alex Hornibrook to find a new home.
After spending a few days on a visit to Florida State, reports indicate he will land with the Seminoles.
Hornibrook announced his intention to graduate in May and move on from the Badgers in a statement at the end of February.
His move to FSU makes a lot of sense, as the Seminoles have a huge void at QB and hardly anyone in the position group this upcoming season.
Following the dismissal of former starting QB Deondre Francois, the Seminoles has just one scholarship quarterback on the roster.
That was redshirt sophomore James Blackman, who has started in the past but also explored his own potential transfer this offseason.
As for the Badgers, this spring will see a wide open competition for the starting quarterback job.
There is four-game starter Jack coan, along with walk-on Danny Vanden Boom. We’ll also get the first big look at redshirt freshman Chase Wolf and the highest rated quarterback to come to Wisconsin in Graham Mertz.
It appears both sides of this transfer are getting what they want and that’s the best outcome you could hope for.
Hornibrook won’t have to compete with four other quarterbacks and the Badgers can get a better read on their realistic options for 2019 and beyond this spring.
2019 NFL Combine results for Badgers players
The next step up for many former Wisconsin Badgers is the NFL. For eight players that step included an invite to the annual player combine, where teams test and poke and prod players for an entire weekend.
So, how did the Badgers fare? Let’s take a look at results and talk coming out of the combine.
40-yard dash: 4.81 seconds
Bench Press: 20 reps
Vertical Jump: 33.5″
Broad Jump: 119.0″
What was said about Dixon (from Lance Zierlein): Although he was an interchangeable, versatile safety in college, Dixon may need a more static position in the pros to minimize his exposure. He can handle man cover duties, but his instincts and anticipation aren’t good enough to make up for his lack of closing burst and his lack of height limits his ability to challenge deep jump balls. He does have some talent, however, and could compete for a backup role with an eye on dime linebacker or a Cover-2, Cover-4 safety.
Prospect Grade: 5.26 (NFL Backup or Special Teams Potential)
40-yard dash: 5.24 seconds
Bench Press: 20 reps
What was said about Benzschawel: Tall, pass-blocking specialist who will need to prove he can be serviceable against NFL power in the run game to become a future starter. Benzschawel plays with good technique and an understanding of blocking concepts in the run game, but might lack the play strength at point of attack NFL teams look for. However, his allure to GMs and offensive coaches could be his ability to match up against athletic, sub-package rushers in today’s quickness-oriented rush approaches.
Prospect Grade: 5.55 (Chance to Become NFL Starter)
40-yard dash: 5.23 seconds
Bench Press: 21 reps
Vertical Jump: 28″
Broad Jump: 105.0″
3-cone drill: 7.88 seconds
20-yard shuttle: 4.81 seconds
What was said: Durable, capable guard/center prospect who knows how to play the game but might lack the athletic elements needed to become a full-time starter on the next level. Dieter’s experience in a variety of pro-style rushing schemes and his overall technique work are in his favor while his experience across the line offer flexibility that could lock him into an NFL roster as an early backup with the potential to step in and start if needed.
Prospect Grade: 5.60 (Chance to Become NFL Starter)
40-yard dash: 5.28 seconds
Bench Press: —
Vertical Jump: 25.5″
Broad Jump: 99.0″
3-cone drill: 7.69 seconds
20-yard shuttle: 4.77 seconds
What was said: Quarterback-turned-tight-end-turned-right-tackle who has maintained his light feet but is missing functional strength and body control to hold his ground against NFL power. Edwards isn’t the technician we’ve come to expect from the Wisconsin program and he’ll need additional technique work to help make up for some of his physical deficiencies. He’s still a pup as an offensive lineman and he should improve with more experience and weight room work, but it’s tough to project him behind average backup to low-end starter at this point.
Prospect Grade: 5.44 (NFL Backup or Special Teams Potential)
40-yard dash: 4.66 seconds
Bench Press: —
Vertical Jump: 34.5″
Broad Jump: 118.0″
3-cone drill: 7.09 seconds
20-yard shuttle: 4.31 seconds
What was said: Connelly fits the Wisconsin mold of tough, productive linebackers who end up lacking either size or speed as NFL projections. He’s not big enough to play SAM and he’s not fast enough to play WILL so he’ll end up as a slightly smaller/slower 3-4 or 4-3 inside backer. He does a decent job of playing around his deficiencies and finding ways to make impact tackles and he’s fairly instinctive is zone coverage. He has the demeanor and play traits to become a solid special teamer with average backup potential.
Prospect Grade: 5.36 (NFL Backup or Special Teams Potential)
40-yard dash: —
Bench Press: 16
Vertical Jump: —
Broad Jump: —
3-cone drill: —
20-yard shuttle: —
What was said: Stout four-year starter who shows up and does his job each week as a banger in the box with surprising ball skills to flip the field. He improved each season and his off-season weight loss is indicative of how seriously he takes the game. He lacks desired chase speed and might be maxed out as a player, but he doesn’t make many dire mistakes that hurt his team. Edwards is a backup inside linebacker for a 3-4 or 4-3 defense with the ability to step up and handle starter’s duties if needed.
Prospect Grade: 5.47 (NFL Backup or Special Teams Potential)
Andrew Van Ginkel
Bench Press: 17
Vertical Jump: 38″
Broad Jump: 123.0″
3-cone drill: 6.89 seconds
20-yard shuttle: 4.14 seconds
What was said: Unimposing 3-4 outside linebacker with decent athletic ability but a concerning lack of aggression as a run blocker and consistency as a pass-rusher. Van Ginkel has the motor to tally stats with effort and secondary rush, but he needs a better rush plan and more proactive hands to set him up for success in attacking the quarterback. He will need a lot more strength and toughness to hold up as a run defender, but his length and production on special teams could give him a shot at the back end of the roster or on a practice squad.
Prospect Grade: 5.0 (50-50 chance to make an NFL roster)
Hornibrook’s gone, but questions remain the same for Badgers QB’s
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right?
It’s hard to argue that the formula that the Wisconsin Badgers have used for nearly 30 years has been highly successful. Play great defense, pound your opponent in to submission and catch them with a deep ball or two along the way.
UW has gone to six Rose Bowls, participated in two College Football Playoff bowl games and won six Big Ten titles in those nearly 30 years and with said formula.
But, that last part has been missing from the Badgers offense for awhile now…you know, since Russell Wilson stopped dazzling us with his rocket arm and escapability back in 2011.
From Joel Stave to Alex Hornibrook and other quarterbacks in between, the UW offense has struggled to find that guy who makes opponents respect his arm enough to stop stuffing the line of scrimmage.
With the news on Wednesday that Hornibrook would be transferring from the program for his final season, the competition is now wide open for the next Badgers starting quarterback.
The bar for success is admittedly low, after all, the Badgers finished 102nd in the country last season with 14 interceptions and 119th in passing offense (157.7 passing yards per game). Nearly anything would be better than what the quarterbacks of 2018 produced.
Losing Hornibrook does mean losing an experienced player, but does it matter much when that player had 33 interceptions in as many games played?
Sure, he was 26-6 as a starter over three years. But, was that because of or in spite of him? I’d argue having one of the best defenses and running back groups in the country has been the driver of that success, not Hornibrook.
Which brings me to the question at hand — is there a quarterback on the Badgers roster that can be someone other teams have to respect? Is there another player ala Russell Wilson, who is capable of taking this offense from ground and pound to three dimensional?
Let’s start with a look at the only quarterback on the roster to play a college game — Jack Coan.
Last season we got the biggest glimpse of Coan to date and what was shown wasn’t all that promising. He played in five games, starting four and completed 60.2 percent of his passes for 515 yards and 5 touchdowns to 3 interceptions.
There was plenty left to be desired, but I also wonder if it was because of too much protection from the coaching staff or just not being ready for the situation. Often the game plan called for Coan to dink and dunk the ball and he was never really given the opportunity to unleash the deep ball.
It seemed like the coaching staff was trying hard to get away with not having to put the game on the sophomore quarterback.
Coan now has those four starts under his belt and with Honribrook out of the way has the experience advantage over everyone else. But, is experience enough?
We’re about to find out, because the Badgers have one of the top quarterbacks in the 2019 class in the fold this spring in Graham Mertz.
Last we saw him, he was setting records at The All-American Bowl game en route to MVP honors. He was flinging the ball deep and accurately, something Badgers fans haven’t seen from a quarterback since Wilson came in to save this team in 2011.
But, there is bound to be a learning curve as Mertz transitions away from spread-based concepts to more under center work. How that transition goes this spring and how quickly he understands and executes the playbook will be telling.
The good news is that we’ve seen Mertz challenged against the best competition in the country at the quarterback position and he’s lived up to billing on every occasion. If ever there was a QB up to the challenge of playing early in a Badgers uniform, it is Mertz.
But, that doesn’t mean he has to be “the guy” either. There are other options to consider already on the Badgers roster.
Both Danny Vanden Boom and Chase Wolf flashed moments of potential all last offseason. In fact, Vanden Boom outplayed Coan throughout most of last spring before tailing off a bit in the competition in the fall.
Could Vande Boom pick it back up this spring and become a viable option? The former Kimberly star and walk-on at UW certainly has played at a level that makes giving him a legitimate chance this spring worthwhile.
On the other hand, Wolf was one of five quarterbacks in the mix last offseason and his reps have been limited. He’ll likely see many more this spring and it’s a chance to shine.
There’s no doubt he’s the dark horse in the race to replace Hornibrook, but with a full year of studying and learning the Badgers offense you never know what will happen when he gets his chance this spring.
All of this leads me to this conclusion — no one, not even the coaching staff has a real answer as to whom will lead the Badgers offense in 2019. If anyone tells you they do, it’s just an uneducated guess at best.
But, what I do know is that spring camp provides the coaches and players the best opportunity to fully understand what the quarterbacks could be capable of in 2019.
There’s little need to get work in in the run game save for the offensive line, but what is going to be important is pressure-testing the quarterbacks. Doing so in a controlled environment like spring ball is a great way to do so.
If the Badgers want to transform from a good team to a great one, they’ll need to find that transformational quarterback as soon as possible. It could also be that the coaching staff needs to find ways to transform the Badgers offense in small ways to take advantage of the quarterback’s strengths.
Hopefully there’s a positive answer that emerges following spring ball.
Hornibrook leaves Badgers, enters name in transfer portal
The Wisconsin Badgers will have a new starting quarterback in 2019, as senior quarterback Alex Hornibrook announced his departure from the program.
“Alex informed us of his decision to leave the team earlier today,” head coach Paul Chryst said in a statement. “He contributed to a lot of our recent success and we want to thank him for all he did for our program. We wish him the best of luck.”
Not only is Hornibrook not playing for the Badgers next season, he has also entered his name in to the transfer portal and will look to play elsewhere next year.
Hornibrook went 26-6 in three seasons as a starting quarterback for the Badgers, including a 20-4 record in Big Ten games. His .813 winning percentage is the best of any quarterback in program history.
He ranks in a tie for third all-time at Wisconsin in touchdown passes (47), fourth in completion percentage (60.5%) and fifth in passing yards (5,438).
That would normally suggest this loss is a big blow. But, there have always been serious questions as to just how much he was contributing to the cause of that 22-6 record.
Additionally, he benefited from longevity quite a bit. Hornibrook started from his redshirt freshman season played in the majority of three seasons, which hasn’t been the normal rate for quarterbacks in college football or at Wisconsin specifically.
There are also the mounds of interceptions to consider as well, as Hornibrook threw 33 interceptions to just 47 touchdowns in his first three years. He also contributed 11 interceptions towards last season’s 14 total as team. That ranked 102nd in the country.
The Badgers will start their search for a new starting quarterback on March 26.
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